What is the Cost of Being Early?
table of contents

What is the Cost of Being Early?
Gold Stocks Have Never Been Cheaper
Trump's Three Arrows
2024 Q2 Natural Resource Market Commentary
US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting
Uranium: A Drama in the Making
The Oil Shales Continue To Decline
Copper's Crossroads: Navigating the Squeeze, Supply Surge, and China's Demand Dilemma
A Precarious Grain Market
What Happens to Gold if Interest Rates Fall?

When
August 28, 2024
2024Q2
Who

Leigh R. Goehring & Adam A. Rozencwajg

Commodities move in large cycles, particularly relative to the stock market. There are times when commodities are cheap, and it is prudent to invest, and times when they are expensive and it's best to stay away.

However, not all cycles are equal.

In 1929 and 1999, commodities rebounded sharply in a V-Bottom. In 1956, they took 12 years from first looking cheap to bottoming, relative to stocks.

Should investors stay away if this cycle resembles the late 1950s? The answer might surprise you.


Our well-known chart tracks the ratio of commodities to stocks. Even though the ratio took 12 years to bottom, commodities and natural resource equities performed well.

There was no cost to being early.

Our newest commentary, What is the Cost of Being Early?, looks at many nuances present when commodities become radically undervalued and should be read closely by anyone with, or considering, an allocation to the industry.

Download our Q2 2024 commentary for insight into:

  • Why investors should not try and time the market when commodities are cheap
  • Why US gas production and inventories are plummeting
  • What the future of US shale oil production has in store
  • Whether Kazatomprom will tighten uranium markets further

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